As we highlighted in our post last night, there are now 6 drivers left in the chase for the 2012 Formula D championship. FD stats guru Jacob Leveton did the math for us and gave us the details on the likely scenarios for the championship.
For Pawlak and Aasbo, their fate may be decided before their top 32 matchup today. JR will battle Nick D’Alessio in the 4th battle of the top 32, and a win would eliminate Aasbo and Pawlak from the chase. Dai’s battle with Mohan is the 2nd battle of top 32, so he will have a chance to move into the top 16 before JR runs, but he is also eliminated if JR moves into the top 16.
Assuming the top 3 drivers move into top 32, here will be their points totals as well as the points potential for top 16 and beyond:
|1. Vaughn Gittin Jr.
|2. Daigo Saito
|3. Rhys Millen
Potential points increases (from top 16):
All 3 drivers will (nearly) control their own destiny.
For JR, the task is simple: Finish ahead of Rhys and Daigo. Fortunately for him, he has full control over this option. Pending how the battles go, JR will have the opportunity to face Rhys Millen in the top 8 and Daigo in the top 4. Beating both drivers, or either driver losing before those respective rounds will affirm JR as the 2012 champion. A loss in the top 16 (or even worse, top 32) would leave JR to wait in the pits and see where the other championship contenders finish before he would be crowned the champion. This is the position that Dai was in last year, and would be absolutely crazy to see happen for a second straight year.
For Daigo, he needs Rhys to lose in top 16 or top 8 (vs potentially Millen), and then he will need to make the final round. If JR makes the top 4 (and meets Daigo), Daigo will need to beat JR and go on to win the entire event while JR would have to finish 4th. Daigo will potentially need to beat Taka in top 32, Forsberg or Grunewald in top 16, Gushi / Yoshioka / Field / Lowe in top 8, potentially Millen or JR in the top 4, and potentially JTP / Aasbo / Tuerck in the final round. Daigo has already affirmed his “Rookie of the Year” title, but a second event win or even a 4th podium in his rookie season could crown him FD US champion.
For Rhys, he must beat JR potentially in the top 8 AND place 1st overall. Even if JR loses in top 16, Rhys still must win in order to overtake JR’s point total. In doing so, Rhys could potentially face Dai in top 16, JR in top 8, Forsberg (2009 champion) or Daigo in top 4 (2012 rookie of the year), and JTP or Aasbo in the final. This would mean Rhys could potentially beat 4 of the 6 remaining championship contenders on his way to the event win and 2012 championship, a run that would be absolutely monumental if it were to happen. Then again, there are 26 other drivers who would love for the opportunity to spoil this run…
If JR loses in top 32, then Daigo would jump him with a top 16 finish and Rhys would jump him with a top 8 finish. In that scenario, JTP / Aasbo / Dai are back in contention, but would need an event win to have a chance. With a loss by JR before the Top 16 ceremonies, the championship will likely come down to the higher finisher between Rhys and Daigo.
Are you confused yet? So are we. That’s why we let Jacob Leveton do all the math. Be sure to tune in to him on the livestream later today!!